Let's assume you are looking at an NFL match between the Browns and the Patriots. Let's assume that the spread is Browns +3.5 at the beginning of the week. The prediction is that the Browns will cover. Do you want to bet immediately? Let's suppose that the public believes the Browns will be beaten by the Patriots. You decide to wait, as most recreational bettors won't place bets until after the game. As you would expect, the Patriots are the most popular team on the day. After the line shifts to Browns +14 you make your bet. You were able get a half-point "free" because you correctly predicted the line movement.
Waiting on a line can increase the chance of it moving in the opposite direction. If this happens, and you don’t like the new line you won’t lose any money. It doesn't mean you have to place that bet. You can still make the original bet if the line doesn’t move. You will be in a better position to win your wager if the line moves as you wish. These small payout odds variations can make a big difference in your bottom line the ODDS
Injuries to Key Players
Line movement can be caused by injuries and players sitting for too long. Negative injury reports can cause the line to move quickly, as people place their bets accordingly. Imagine Tom Brady getting hurt suddenly in practice just a few days prior to a game. What do you think the line will move to if it was Patriots 10? It will most likely move to Patriots -2 or 3 because they are less likely to win. People will start betting aggressively until the line moves.
You can get an edge over the rest by keeping an eye on injuries. You can receive a fantastic point spread or payout price if you are able to tell Tom about his injury before anyone else starts betting. The same thing can happen to players who are arrested or suspended. It doesn't matter if the player isn't playing or is doubtful about it, it will have an impact on the game.
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Media Stories
The betting public is prone to react negatively to news stories. The betting public will often react to news stories about upcoming games or teams. This can lead to great betting opportunities and can move the line.
When news breaks, you should ask yourself whether it will have an impact on the outcome of the game. Media is in the entertainment business, so they will be exaggerating and exaggerating stories to make them seem bigger than they actually are. It is important to consider the impact of the news on the game and not the effect on the narrative.
Causes of Line Movement
Now you understand that the lines move because the sportsbook wants to make the same amount on both sides of the wager. This is due to the way people bet. Let's now discuss a few factors that can cause the line move quickly. Knowing how to predict the line's movement will help you place more profitable and smarter bets. This will be covered in the "Why This is Important" section. Let's first talk about the catalysts that allow line movement.
The Public vs. Sharps
There are two types of people in the world of gambling. The first is the "betting public," which refers to all recreational bettors that place smaller bets. The second category is the "sharps," professional bettors who typically place larger bets. Although the bettors make smaller bets than the public, they have more influence over the lines.
If a line makes big moves as soon as it is out, or early in the week then that is usually a sign that sharp bettors are taking advantage of a weak line. They will often hammer a lot of cash, which can cause the lines to shift quickly. The betting public will usually place their bets if a line moves closer to game time or later in the week. Because nothing is certain, we say "usually", and sharps can make bets late at night when things change.
Sportsbooks operate individually
We must emphasize that sportsbooks are independent. While some books are owned by the same parent company, most operate on their own. What does this all mean? These line movements will be related to the activity at each individual sportsbook.
Sportsbooks don't care about what's happening at other books. They don't care about the person they are placing bets on. They care only about what's happening in their sportsbook. Two sportsbooks may have different lines on the same bet.
Let's suppose there is a match between Team A (or Team B). Casino 1 and Casino 2 both have bets on this game. You'll see dramatically different lines at each casino if everyone betting at Casino 1 is on Team A, and everyone betting at Casino 2 on Team B. Because they have more bets on this side of the game, you'll see better payout odds for Team B at Casino 1. You'll see better payout odds for Team A at Casino 2 because they have to win more money home page of the site
This section will explain why you should make this the cornerstone of any betting strategy.
